But with every passing decade there are less people like you.
Short term trends are not sustainable. I don't think there are many companies competing to make vinly record players.
Upvote
0
Richard's Thoughts on 2025
- Thread starter Richard CR
- Start date
Short term trends are not sustainable. I don't think there are many companies competing to make vinly record players.
Lol, no…just a whole bunch more than companies making cameras. But please, go on demonstrating your lack of knowledge.
Amazon Best Sellers: Best Audio & Video Turntables
Discover the best Audio & Video Turntables in Best Sellers. Find the top 100 most popular items in Amazon Electronics Best Sellers.
www.amazon.com
Upvote
0
LOL @ you posting an article from almost 10 years ago with links to a bunch of products that are no longer available.
Then you post a link an amazon page filled with a bunch of small boutique companies and cheap Chinese knockoffs. If that is the bright future you see ahead I'm not sure why you are arguing with me.
Upvote
0
LOL @ you being the one who keeps claiming Chinese camera makers are going to take over the camera industry.
The graphic I posted shows 11 top turntable brands in 2024. That ignores popular, less expensive brands like Crosby, Victrola, etc., and mid level brands like Denon, Yamaha, Pioneer, JBL, and…wait for it…Sony. So, that’s 18 brands from a quick perusal.
Feel free to name a larger number of top camera brands. Again, LOL.
Incidentally, I have a nice turntable on which I can listen to my Led Zeppelin albums (love LZIII with the volvelle album cover), and my teenager can listen to her A$AP Rocky vinyl.
Upvote
0
Take over is a bit strong but they will definitly make it challenging.
It looks like the big camera manufactuers who participate in CIPA will ship around 1.8M fixed lens cameras this year. Below is the list of best selling point and shoots cameras on Amazon.
https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers...vFlyout&ref_=sn_gfs_co_camera_bestsellers_P_2
There are multiple Chinese companies like Camkory, Lecran, Saneen, etc that are selling 10k+ per month. The Camkory got popular on Chinese ownered Tiktok which I'm sure is a coincidence
Looking at that Amazon best sellers list Amazon alone is probably selling more point and shoot cameras than all the big companies reporting to CIPA combined.However just like with your turntable list, most of the people buying these items are simply doing so as a gift or for nostalgia and most of these products aren't getting used much.
Big picture my position is
1. Younger people are losing a need to have dedicated cameras. We've gone from 120M cameras a year, down to 8M cameras a year.
2. Cameras from major companies are now getting more expensive and the increase in image quality is hitting a plateu. The new advancements are things like AI autofocus and precapture which are geared more toward high end professionals looking to get a split second image not capture a casual memory.
3. Chinese companies are getting better and the quality gap is closing. Case in point DJI with the Osmo Pocket 3 which did way better than the Canon V10 even though they have a similar sensor. Also Chinese manufactures are now making good quality lenses at affordable prices. This will eat into the revenue of casual lenses and the big companies will be foreced to make higher end lenses as that is where they can still compete.
As a result of these things it appears the future of Cameras will be focused on people who continue to need higher and higher end cameras which is likely people getting paid from the photos/vidoes they take. As the demographics shift the people getting paid wont be taking pictures for say Magazines because people don't look at them anymore. Since most media is consumed on social media, the people getting paid the most will be people making this kind of content.
Will there always be hobbyist that buy things for fun? Sure, but again as the prices go higher and higher it will become more and more niche.
But what revenue do they make selling them. It's clear that this is a niche market. If Sony made the same amount of revenue on cameras that it makes today on turntables that would clearly would mean a complete implosion of camera sales.
Irrelevant but Ok I'll bite. Canon, Sony, Nikon (Bought RED), Fuji, Ricoh, Om Systems, Panasonic, Sigma, Panasonic, Pentax, Hasselblad, Leica, DJI, GoPro, Insta360, Kodak, BlackMagic, Polaroid
And this ignroes the countless Chinese brands on Amazon.
All disagreements aside as someone who grew up in the "inner city" listening to rap music I would be mindful of A$AP Rocky (and most rap in general). I know being married to Rhihanna helped soften his image but his lyrics promote drug use, abuse of women, murder and all kind of illegal activities. Go on Youtube and watch his video "Wassup", its pretty rough.
Upvote
0
I think this is where we disagree.
Modern camera systems (really anything made in the last decade) can all produce great images in the hands of professionals.
The professionals who actually use cameras to make money has to justify each new gear purchase as a business decision -- i.e. does spending $3k on a new camera or lens actually produce more than $3k in income for them. Often times the answer is no, so you see wedding photographers still rocking their 5D4s and D800s because it works for them and their clients are happy.
This is coupled with the fact that content creators really don't make a lot of money. I was listening to Jared Polin's (aka FroKnowsPhoto) podcast and he disclosed recently that he made less than $90k from YouTube over the last year, and that guy has 1.4M followers. He says he makes a lot more money selling Lightroom presets, and it seems like the YouTube channel is basically marketing for his presets. Most YouTubers are not nearly as big as Jared Polin, so they make even less. If you are working this full-time, you just likely don't have much money left over to upgrade your own gear after you pay your bills.
Meanwhile, dentists earning $500k/year can plonk down the money for a new R1 or A1II or whatever without blinking because they have so much disposable income to spend. They don't have to justify anything to themselves except "I want the best".
Upvote
0
^^^This.
People earning money from their gear will spend money on new gear when it delivers a tangible return on investment, and gear is generally good enough that the bar is pretty hight for that...coupled to the lower revenue stream of the majority of both pro photographers and content creators. Affluent amateurs will spend money on new gear because it's new and they want it...and they have the money to spend.
As I said, it's not hard to grasp.
Upvote
0
Agreed. However the improvents seemed to be aimed at people looking to get the right millesecond, hence precapture and AI autofocus. Imagine all the photographers at the Trump rally and how one got all the credit for catching the bullet mid air.
We are mixing arguments here. I'm saying that the cameras are getting so good that no one has to upgrade. So the bulk of people who are upgrading are the ones who would like the quality of life improvements but don't actually make the picture better. This to me is likely a professional. The R1 and A1II is probably mostly being sold to companies that have contractor with Canon or Sony. The actual photographer isn't even paying for the camera the company is.
Pretty much all the casual shooters on this forum I've read have said they are upgrading less. The casual shooters complain about the R1 and say it isn't worth while upgrade. The response on this forum is that Canon is working in colloboration with the PROFESSIONALS and Canon knows thier market best.
Yes that is the name of the game. Social Media is the advertising medium that you have to capitalize off of. If you have 1M followers on Instagram they don't pay you anything. You use the followers you have to as a means to attract advertisiers. Without Youtube no one would know "ProKnowsPhoto". That notoriety gets him jobs he'd never get.
Same with Wedding photographers. Social media is how you are getting your clients. You post your work on Instagram and people who like your asthetic Dm you. Or on Youtube you start making tutuorial videos. As you build a name for yourself people see you as professional in your field over selecting some random photographer/videographer.
No doubt there are people with money buying R1's for bragging rights as they use it as an ornament in their home office. But as time passes every decade there seems to be less people interested in photography as a hobby. So sure if you're a 55 year old dentist today. But the question becomes how many of the 35 year olds today will become the 55 year old $500k earning dentist of 2045?
The demographic info clearly shows that those numbers are decreasing.
As the older population gets replaced with the younger population the percent of households owning a camera is decreasing.
Upvote
0
And again, you presumtion is that there will be a ton of affluent amateurs in the future. Is that a possibility? Yes. Now would you agree that if in the future the main buyer is an affluent amateur that would likely mean the market is a niche market?
Upvote
0
I think any IQ or quality of life improvement is more or less irrelevant to buying high end cameras. The rich amateurs group simply says "this is the latest model, this is the best, I shall buy the best" and that's all there is to it.
It is the same thing with all the other hobbies at the high end. Specialized Bicycles supplies $15k+ Tour de France-grade bikes to professional cyclists, but I bet they sell a lot more of those bikes to rich overweight amateurs going on their weekend group rides.
I don't think anyone of us knows what Canon does or does not do with regards to their product planning cycles. I think the talk about Canon collaborating with professionals to design the R1 is also a bit of marketing. The rich amateurs like the fact that they are using the same gear as the professionals on the NFL sidelines in the same way that the rich amateurs like that their bicycle is the same one used by professional cyclists on the Tour de France.
But this is not relevant to whether they but new gear or not. If I shoot weddings with a pair of 5D4s and people like my stuff on social media and it gets me jobs, I am not sure upgrading to an R5II will get me more jobs. Most people select a photographer based on the final images, and don't particular care what cameras they shoot with (maybe except that it looks big and professional, which they all do).
This is a problem, but MILC camera sales seem to be have stabilized after years of decline, so I think the bleeding has stopped. Your graph also shows total standalone camera ownership rates, and most of those people across all age groups are not interested in "photography" enough to buy interchangeable lens cameras anyway.
In some sense the camera makers also know that it is a shrinking market, so almost all of them (except Canon) are all moving up market to chase the smaller (but hopefully richer) population of people who still care about photography. The "entry-level" Fuji X-M5 is now $800, Sony has basically given up on the low-end APS-C market, etc...
Upvote
0
I don't think we disagree much here. As a hobby specialized bicycles is very niche. Cameras currently aren't a niche products. I'm saying in the short term the growth of the need for cameras for social media is what is keeping the market from being niche.
I don't disagree. However if you were not making "Contret" and you move into the space you need gear. You likely start out with a smarthone or a chearp ILC. As you move up to the current 5D's of the world you plateu or burnout beforehand. What I see happening today is that because a lot of people are starting on the journey today that is driving the demand for these cameras in the short term.
The sales have stabilized but the ownership rate hasn't. Which likely means they are selling multiple camers to existing owners. The issue is what happens as the people buying multiple cameras phase out and are replaced with people not using them.
That has been my exact argument.
Upvote
0
Of course there will be a ton of affluent amateurs in the future... a lot of current doctors/lawyers etc at 35 today will become the high earning users in the future. How much do you think the current group earned at 35? They have with the financial ability/health to find hobbies they like without needing to look after dependents or pay off a mortgage.
Canon doesn't care about the household % ownership is dropping over time. They are interested in how many in a segment will buy their products. So far, so good for them at a top level.
With specialised global workshops/travel options, users want to get the best shots and will pay good money for for both the workshop and gear. Sony/Nikon/Canon have been releasing MILCs at the higher end for higher profits and then worked their way down. Canon adds free firmware now (except the recent grid lines), Sony leaves older models in their line up and wants users to upgrade to new models. It isn't surprising that Canon doesn't see the a huge number of users upgrading from R5 to R5ii. They are targeting the 5Div owners who haven't migrated yet and the performance difference is staggering!
So what is a "niche"? It is just a marketing segment that OEMs target. There are lots of them with different needs from low and high end content creators, sports, and affluent prosumers.
Arguing that one segment is more important than another without the internal Canon data to support it is farting into the wind.
Upvote
0
I would definitely call Leica "niche"!
Even Hasselblad doubled their revenue and 10x their profit in 2023 YoY despite the offerings by Fuji so hopefully starting a trend in that market as well.
Choice is always good for consumers
Upvote
0
Still, some people persist in believing they understand the market better than the company that has led the market for >20 years and dominates today. Oh well, can't stop people from making themselves look foolish.
Upvote
0
True, but ultra luxury brands are not a good meter to judge a market since they perform in different ways compared to other companies in the same sector.I would definitely call Leica "niche"!
Even Hasselblad doubled their revenue and 10x their profit in 2023 YoY despite the offerings by Fuji so hopefully starting a trend in that market as well.
Choice is always good for consumers
Years ago I was working for Ferrari (making a web site for them) during an automotive industry downturn. They told me that cyclical crisis times did not affect them much since they had orders for years in the future and their clientele was generally less exposed to economic turbulence. Having said so, it did not change the fact that the vast majority of the car industry was feeling the pinch in those years.
Upvote
0
The Veblen Good effect of increasing demand for increasing price has certainly worked spectacularly well for LVMH and Hermes over the last 20+ years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veblen_good
but I am uncertain of Hasselblad/Phase One being a status symbol. Their dominance has certainly been impacted by Fuji medium format so their ability to increase pricing seeking to increase demand is questionable.
I could see Leica fitting better into a status symbol category. The pricing of collectable vintage items plus releasing new finishes for existing body/lenses at a higher price screams status or investment rather than function/performance.
Upvote
0
