Even though Craig laid down the gauntlet for predictions on 2025, I think he cheated. Now I know why this last month, when chatting with him and asking him what would happen in 2025, he just shrugged and said, “I dunno.”

It was all part of his evil plan.

Without this being a complete copout, I honestly have no idea what Canon will do in 2025, and it really could be that Canon doesn’t know either. There are so many economic storm clouds bandied about for 2025 that no one, not Canon or us, knows what will happen.

Canon could decide to continue business as usual, but this could also mean that it changes its plans for 2025 based on the current economic climate of the two largest powerhouse countries that it relies on, the United States and China.

I could see Canon deciding to race to the bottom and release cheaper, more affordable products; while not the best for profitability, at least moving cameras and lenses. Without much reoccurring revenue, Canon relies heavily on what it can sell here and now. While they can rebate and mark down existing cameras, they could easily switch gears and decide to go low-end.

I am dubbing 2025 the year of the bang for the buck.

Here are some things I think they could do based on the global economy next year. I trashed my knee falling this week, so the medications may have some bearing on what I’m dreaming up here.

Canon R200 GS

Yes, you read that right. I was chatting with Craig about his article about the global shutter camera, and let’s be honest here. There’s nothing more expensive about global shutter sensors than normal stacked sensors. Assuming the global shutter sensor has the same amount of substrates as the normal stacked and a more traditional global shutter sensor design, its manufacturing cost is practically the same. Companies charge you more (cough Sony) because they can, not because they have to.

A global shutter allows Canon to perfect this race to the bottom by removing all the mechanical assemblies associated with a camera (e.g., the shutter assembly) and mass-producing them as cheaply as possible.

We have seen low-end cameras before not having a shutter and relying on the electronic shutter, but to be honest, the engineering going into a fast read-out of the camera is more than a slower global shutter camera. Just like your computer, more speed equates to more heat. Canon could shove in the low-cost 24MP APS-C camera without a shutter, but we’ve seen those cameras universally panned as not being that great. So I don’t think they’d to that here, especially after the disaster of the EOS R100.

While it’s more of a pain-ridden fever dream that Canon could do this with a camera as low as the R100, they absolutely could. especially if they wanted to take the industry by storm and dare other manufacturers like Sony to follow. Canon has done this in the past with the 5D and the D30 when the competition was nowhere close to Canon’s capabilities.

Canon EOS R200

A Canon EOS R200 is probably a little less fantastical but far more likely. This camera would end up looking similar to the M200 and cover multiple bases that Canon and other manufacturers are leaving alone. It would be the bridge between smartphones and cameras in size, cost, and complexity.

I would expect this camera to rehash the 24MP APS-C DPAF sensor yet again, which is starting to remind me of days gone by with the 18MP APS-C sensor.

Canon will learn from its unimaginable mistake with the Canon EOS R100 and include a touchscreen. Unlike the global shutter version dreamt up above, this version will have a mechanical shutter, but don’t expect it to be a speed demon in any way possible.

Max reminded me of something that has gone missing – these little “soap bar” cameras are great backup bodies because they take little room and weight in your kit, so I suspect more people than just beginners would buy the R200 if Canon woke up from it’s slumber.

If Canon goes this route, I hope they try to bring fun back to this lineup with more than just white and black cameras. Let’s bring back some personality.

Other Cameras

The other cameras in the APS-C lineup are more or less predictable, and I think Canon will keep to the release formulae they have done in the past.

The Canon EOS R7 Mark II is one of our expected cameras next year, so I’d be cheating by saying it’s my prediction, but I will predict that if Canon does this camera next year, it will go upmarket and create a bit more breathing room between the R50 and the R7. I expect this camera to ditch the ergonomic Frankenstein design and go to the traditional 7 and 5 ergonomics. I think the R10 will go upmarket a bit as well. Canon will fork this model into two cameras, one with an EVF and traditional DSLR styling and the other, a more compact model because I’ve been whining about it, and we all know Canon listens to me.

The R50 has been a strong seller for Canon, but I don’t think the R50 and the R8 are due for an upgrade until 2026. Canon will continue to ride the R8 and R50 as they stand for another year and use price to market them further.

Powershot

I think Powershot is going to get a revitalization next year. There is a large focus on compact cameras coming out of Asia, and Canon never likes not being #1 in any of the camera market segments. They take that very personally. Recall that Canon claimed that when the EOS-M was still in its infancy, it aimed for the top spot in Japan’s mirrorless market. Everyone laughed. What happened? Oh yeah, they did that.

I think Canon will come out with a G7X Mark IV this year. There, I’ve said it. I think Canon has enough engineering chops to do a 1″ sensor of their design instead of Sony sensors, which may be part of why we have never seen a new power shot. Canon is a little proud of its use of sensors, and I’m sure the corporation didn’t like the idea of using a Sony sensor. That’s okay, neither did I ;)

Also, I think Canon has soon enough from Fuji and Ricoh to finally decide that a fixed lens higher-end compact camera is a market they want to get into. Fujifilm is struggling to keep up with demand for its X100 V, which is nearing $1900. I can’t see the Canon beancounters not wanting a piece of that action. Canon has a lot of history there with its compact film cameras. It’s time for a Canon digital Canonet.

Lenses

This is where Craig cheated ;)

I do feel the tilt-shifts will come next year – and that’s me cheating somewhat. We have only seen such a patent application windup from Canon once – and that was with IBIS. You could map Canon’s perfecting of the technology from its patent portfolio, and I think tilt shift is no different. Not to be overly sensational, but these lenses and the entire system will be groundbreaking and revolutionary. Nothing else out there will come close. It will be something that only Canon can do because they “can.”

Also, these tilt-shift lenses will have far more impact than just our ILC (interchangeable lens cameras), but they will also advance Canon in the realm of security cameras. There have been quite a few patent applications with security applications and tilt-shift, and the ability to remotely control the tilt of a security camera lens would be a groundbreaking solution for the security market.

Keeping with the bang for the buck in 2025 mentality, I could see Canon also doing some APS-C lenses based on Canon’s EOS-M designs already done. Removing most of the costs associated with the design and fabrication of these lenses would keep the prices reasonable. I would love to see the 15-45mm and 32mm come out of the RF-S lineup.

I will buck Craig’s thoughts on this, but if you had a good copy of the EF-M 15-45 (it took me six attempts – I kid you not), it was a decent lens. There’s no reason in 2025 that Canon cannot do this and release an equivalent 24-70 for the APS-C system. Yes, it’s not as sexy as a constant F2.8 lens, but it’s equally important to Canon’s lower end.

In closing..

We have heard a lot of rumours (Craig’s evil plan aside) about what is coming in 2025, but the wayside may toss all of those plans if the global economy and supply chains get tossed on their side. Canon could decide to change it all based on reactions to the market; while we would not necessarily see this impact in the first half of the year from Canon, anything is possible in the last half of 2025.

Regardless, we are spoiled by an embarrassment of options, so whatever Canon does, enjoy your photography in 2025.

Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash

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Go to discussion...

77 comments

  1. ... I think he cheated. ... It was all part of his evil plan. ...
    Maybe you're right ;)

    ... I could see Canon also doing some APS-C lenses based on Canon's EOS-M designs already done. Removing most of the costs associated with the design and fabrication of these lenses would keep the prices reasonable. I would love to see the 15-45mm and 32mm come out of the RF-S lineup. ...
    I really hope you're right with this.
    Not having an R APS-C body yet, I could see myself getting one for travel in future.
    And turning good/small EF-M lens designs into RF-S seem to me a no-brainer, as R&D costs would be low and they'd already proven their IQ.
    And an RF-S 15-45mm f/3.5-6.3 IS STM would be a much better lens than that "meh!" 18-45 with almost the same dimensions.
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  2. I'm still hoping for an R9 :) Small FF body without the viewfinder bump, no potential news on this?
    This would be an ideal travel setup with the rf 28, 50, etc
    Honestly..have you tried an R8...it's already tiny and loosing the tiny EVF won't make it much smaller, although it might improve the battery life a bit.
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  3. I'm still hoping for an R9 :) Small FF body without the viewfinder bump, no potential news on this?
    This would be an ideal travel setup with the rf 28, 50, etc
    Definitely, with R8 guts in an M6 II body, the stars will align right again.
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  4. I think the opposite. I would think that leaning more into high-end, professional products is a good bet for 2025. Unless I am mistaken, the US currently imposes no tariffs on digital ILCs. If successful, an increased 10-20% tariff on all imports will raise the price at checkout. But my bet is that professionals and businesses are less likely to be turned off by rising costs compared to hobbyists. Honestly, if Canon has plans for a flagship cinema camera—something in the $20K range—I think 2025 is a good year for that. People in the high-end market simply have more reasons and methods to justify paying inflated prices. With the advent of the sensor inside the C80 and C400, there are a lot of eyes on Cinema EOS right now. Seems the flagship should be in the near horizon
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  5. Don't know about the global economy, but inflation has changed our spending. It's not just that some of the things we had wanted to buy went up, but everything has gone up so dramatically that we have to be very careful about all expenditures. For example, we ditched after-school care for our kids because we couldn't justify $6k per schoolyear for 90 minutes x 5 days a week. Happy to have that "extra" money back in our pockets, we saw expenses such as insurance, food, utilities, property taxes, extracurricular activity fees skyrocket to the point where, yep, all the $6k in savings just disappeared. Just like that.

    The old siren call of G.A.S. has been drowned out by middle-class realities. I think this is happening to more and more consumers.
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  6. Don't know about the global economy, but inflation has changed our spending. It's not just that some of the things we had wanted to buy went up, but everything has gone up so dramatically that we have to be very careful about all expenditures. For example, we ditched after-school care for our kids because we couldn't justify $6k per schoolyear for 90 minutes x 5 days a week. Happy to have that "extra" money back in our pockets, we saw expenses such as insurance, food, utilities, property taxes, extracurricular activity fees skyrocket to the point where, yep, all the $6k in savings just disappeared. Just like that.

    The old siren call of G.A.S. has been drowned out by middle-class realities. I think this is happening to more and more consumers.
    The issues are certainly real. It remains to be seen whether or not this affects Canon's unit sales and bottom line. For 2024, Canon is projecting a 1% growth in camera unit sales and a 3.7% increase in associated revenue.
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  7. Don't know about the global economy, but inflation has changed our spending. It's not just that some of the things we had wanted to buy went up, but everything has gone up so dramatically that we have to be very careful about all expenditures. For example, we ditched after-school care for our kids because we couldn't justify $6k per schoolyear for 90 minutes x 5 days a week. Happy to have that "extra" money back in our pockets, we saw expenses such as insurance, food, utilities, property taxes, extracurricular activity fees skyrocket to the point where, yep, all the $6k in savings just disappeared. Just like that.

    The old siren call of G.A.S. has been drowned out by middle-class realities. I think this is happening to more and more consumers.
    Perhaps counterintuitively I suspect this factor will harm the sales of the cheaper products more than the high end. I suspect most people who were spending $2.5k+ on bodies and lenses are less sensitive to inflation than the folks who are trying to keep their whole kit under $1k.
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  8. Perhaps counterintuitively I suspect this factor will harm the sales of the cheaper products more than the high end. I suspect most people who were spending $2.5k+ on bodies and lenses are less sensitive to inflation than the folks who are trying to keep their whole kit under $1k.
    Yeah I think so too. If someone is already thinking of buying a $4k+ R5II and/or a $3k 70-200Z, a $250-500 increase in price is not going to sway them too much.

    A $400 R100 becoming $450 might be a bigger deal.
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  9. Perhaps counterintuitively I suspect this factor will harm the sales of the cheaper products more than the high end. I suspect most people who were spending $2.5k+ on bodies and lenses are less sensitive to inflation than the folks who are trying to keep their whole kit under $1k.
    I think the problem is wider and deeper. I believe the people who could comfortably buy an R5 several years ago are now feeling very squeezed and looking to hold on to less gear for longer. Of course this is a projection on my part, but it is also true for many friends And associates and family.
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  10. I think the problem is wider and deeper. I believe the people who could comfortably buy an R5 several years ago are now feeling very squeezed and looking to hold on to less gear for longer. Of course this is a projection on my part, but it is also true for many friends And associates and family.
    Does make me curious about the average income in this hobby in general, as well as the various price segments.
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  11. Does make me curious about the average income in this hobby in general, as well as the various price segments.
    Canon used to collect demographic data with product registrations. The old warranty cards had a side devoted to it, and the online registration had a survey. Both asked what other gear you own, what you were planning to buy, and things like age and income. IIRC, the top choice for income was >$175,000. It seems they no longer collect those data, registration is all online and they only ask serial number and where purchased.

    Not a direct answer, but there was a recent blog post reporting on a 2024 survey of 500 professional photographers (the majority were wedding photographers), and this was one question:

    1733522189145.png
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  12. Canon used to collect demographic data with product registrations. The old warranty cards had a side devoted to it, and the online registration had a survey. Both asked what other gear you own, what you were planning to buy, and things like age and income. IIRC, the top choice for income was >$175,000. It seems they no longer collect those data, registration is all online and they only ask serial number and where purchased.

    Not a direct answer, but there was a recent blog post reporting on a 2024 survey of 500 professional photographers (the majority were wedding photographers), and this was one question:

    View attachment 221291
    A very informative post from a professional perspective. Thank you for sharing.
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  13. I may be in a different class, here (my wife seems to think so--not sure what she means by that), but I\'ve been waiting a long time for a new G7 (still using the Mk II), though perhaps with a few more pixels and longer glass (like the Sony RX-100 VII\'s 24-200), but which I could slip into a shirt pocket. There are so many times I see a great photo, but don\'t have my R5m2 to hand, so it\'s nice having a tiny thing in the pocket.
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