Canon 2nd Quarter 2024 Financials – Making Money
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In their financial documents, for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, Nikon forecasts that their interchangeable lens camera market share will "skyrocket" all the way up to (850/6100) 14%.
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So Canon is forecasting minuscule Y/Y growth (2%), Nikon is forecasting good Y/Y growth (20%), and together they are forecasting a combined absolute gain of ~3% of the market. Wonder where that will come from…
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Here is Canon's original answer:
"At Canon, we see in-house production as vital to our mission to use technology to create a suite of innovative and distinguished products and services with high added value. To this end, we are actively promoting the shift to in-house production throughout the Canon Group."
Source: https://global.canon/en/mfg/q-02.html
That's why I still am fond of Canon's photo products.
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That's the law of the bigger market shares: it is getting harder to grow further, the bigger you are. If those forecasts come true, the shares of Canon and Nikon will be about as follows at the end of this FY - not exactly, since I use the numbers of September, 2023, according to Petapixel (https://petapixel.com/2023/09/05/canon-has-nearly-50-of-camara-market-share-nearly-double-sony/):
Canon: (1 + 0.02)x46,5 % = 47.4 %
Nikon: (1 + 0.02)x11.7 % = 14.0 %
So, if the market shares would develop like that further in the coming years, Canon would reach 50 % in roughly about 3 years. Caution: the famous dictum "predictions are difficult, especially when they concern the future" remains valid (origin of this saying is unclear, some attribute it to George Bernard Shaw, others to Winston Churchill or further VIPs).
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If you shoot wildlife in rugged environments, you really shouldn't change to Nikon. I do wildlife side by side with my wife, who has an extended Nikon gear. In the past 15 years, I had exactly one repair with my original EOS 7D, the thumb wheel had to be changed. With Nikon we had so many failures: stuck mirrors, destroyed AF drives, dead camera buttons only because of a few rain drops that this couldn't be just bad luck. My wife caresses her gear much more than I do, getting out raincovers at the first few drops. If she wouldn't have a big gear from the analogue era (she still uses her FM-2 and other film cameras), she would have changed to Canon, just because she sees that my gear works and works... Once famed for high mechanical pro quality, Nikon in the digital era has really downgraded their investment in quality, in ruggedness.
So, if you just shoot in dry, relatively clean environments, a change to Nikon would be okay.
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I didn't find a timeline of product releases in different markets quickly, but the decline in the domestic market could be caused by the fact, that Canon first introduces their new products in Japan. A new product typically creates a sales growth peak after release, and later declines when the market is saturated for a while. So it depends on the time frame through which you look at sales numbers.
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Three things:
- Canon was at 48% for 2023 (the 46.5% was for 2022, but also was total cameras while 48% is just ILCs; the 2% increase to 49% was Canon’s forecast for ILCs.
- Your math is wrong, Nikon is forecasting a 20% increase, (1 + 0.02)x11.7% = 11.9%, (1 + 0.2)x11.7 % = 14.0%.
- My main point was that if Nikon and Canon forecast a combined 3% increase in market share, other manufacturer(s) must lose market share, most likely Sony.
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According to a post on Digital Camera World: “The latest data from Japan's Cabinet Office paints a grim picture for the once-mighty digital camera industry. A mere 48.6% of households now own a standalone digital camera, down from a peak of 77% in 2012. ”
This decline may be the root cause of the bad domestic sales. The fact that Canon only released the RF 35mm and the RF VR lens in the first half of this year does not help either.
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One of the documents released with the results states: “As for laser printers, unit sales increased compared with the same period of the previous year due in part to the completion of inventory adjustments at its OEM partner”.
So I suspect that Canon does not manufacture their laser printers but have someone else slap the Canon labels on the laser printers.
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I guess that is in line with a general trend: the fraction of people having a dedicated camera gear is shrinking, because for most people smartphones are completely satisfying. So camera makers only can rely on world markets to survive. Japan's population is aging and the no. of potential customers shrinking, and so is the traditionally strong domestic market.
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You got me, it should have been (1 + 0.2) of course, and I shouldn't do math with the Corona virus turning my brain into a sort of mush ... thx for the correction.
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Take care and get well soon.
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Peter has become a hack in the past year, probably the delusions of seeing “Sony trolls” everywhere finally took their toll
For real though, he seems to be on a pro-Nikon, anti-everyone-else crusade now. He’s not even bothering to try to hide his bias anymore. His relentless Canon and Panasonic bashing over the past few months have really turned me off from all of his sites.
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