Canon sold almost half all cameras made in 2023

CJaurelius said:

Canon is NOT 40% of the ILC market. That is NOT a correct statement.

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Thanks. Was that so hard?

CJaurelius said:

Can you admit thar prior to that I was trying to extrapolate where I THINK the ILC market would be once DSLR's are no longer around?

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Admit? That was obvious from the beginning. Prior market performance information is factual. Future market performance is speculation.The problem with your speculation is that it is not extrapolation, since the latter is based on analysis of existing factual data and a reasonable interpretation thereof.

CJaurelius said:

Below are the numbers I used. I simply looked up the past 6 year, typed it in excel. clicked create chart and then create trendline. You can adjust as you see fit.

2018​	49.10%​
2019​	45.40%​
2020​	47.90%​
2021​	45.80%​
2022​	46.50%​
2023​	46.50%​

Below is the date for Sony, again simply looked up the Techno Systems Research reports and dropped them into excel.

2018​	13.30%​
2019​	20.20%​
2020​	22.10%​
2021​	27.00%​
2022​	26.10%​
2023​	27.90%​

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First off, your numbers for 2018 are incorrect, but that's not completely your fault. What you list as 2018 is from the '2018 report', but that's the one that came out in Fall 2018 and actually shows the sales data for 2017 (that's the norm, we're discussing 2023 market share in this thread because those data just came out here in Fall 2024).

The correct market share values for 2018 are 43% for Canon and 19.3% for Sony. Feel free to plug the correct values for 2018 into your Excel spreadsheet, if you do so you will actually find that from 2018 to 2023, Canon's trend line is very slightly positive. If you include 2017 (the numbers you listed as 2018), the trend line for Canon is flat. Either way, your statement that, "The overall trend [for Canon] is downward," is blatantly false. The overall trend is basically flat (the slightl increase when plotting 2018-2023 is not something that should be considered meaningful, IMO).

Here are the correct numbers plotted in a way that appropriately enables comparison, i.e. on the same scale.

2018-2023


2017-2023


If you look over a full decade, the picture is basically the same as looking at 2018-2023 (I was unable to find market share data for 2016)
2014-2023


As I have stated many, many (many!!) times...what the data show is that over the last 10 years, Canon's camera market share has remained very stable at just under 50%. Sony's market share has increased significantly, and they gained their market share primarily at the expense of Nikon, and not from Canon.

CJaurelius said:

I've admitted to being wrong to you in the past. You've never admitted being wrong EVER and have constantly referred to me and others as stupid, idiots, etc.

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I've admitted being wrong on many occasions, including in this very thread. I've also clearly stated that I have little tolerance for fools, and personally I consider someone who misrepresents facts and is unable to use simple logic to be foolish.

CJaurelius said:

This isn't a 100% me against Canon thing. I think they market is shifting and it will greatly affect all of them. This Canon forum just happens to be one of the more active places where people discuss numbers.

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The point I've made several times is that the market has been shifting for a while. The entire digital camera market dropped by 90% over the past 14 years, and mirrorless cameras were <25% of the market a decade ago while they're >80% today. Those are seismic shifts in the market, especially the first one. Through all of that massive upheaval, what has happened to Canon's market share? It has remained very stable at just under 50%. Sony gained substantially, Nikon lost substantially. Canon didn't change. Canon discontinued the EOS M line a couple of years ago, and at one point that line was 17% of all ILCs sold (i.e. more cameras than Nikon is selling now), and what happened to Canon's market share? It has remained very stable at just under 50%. I have no idea how anyone can look at the data and conclude that Canon is about to lose a big chunk of market share.

CJaurelius said:

If I told you a year ago that Canon's market share would stay flat and Sony's would increase you'd get hyperbolic and complain. And yet that is exactly what happened.

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LOL. Try paying attention. I've been saying for years what I stated repeatedly in this post – that Canon's market share has remained essentially flat for a decade. If you told me a year ago that Canon's market share would stay flat and Sony's would increase, I would have agreed that was logical and fits with the data. (Having said that, if you don't assume the trend must be linear, and there's no reason to assume that, a nonlinear curve fit shows that Canon remains flat but Sony's increase is flattening out over the past three years).

The take-home point is that if you actually look at correct data and extrapolate properly from it, you would expect Canon's market share to stay the same and Sony's to asymptote at a somewhat higher level than they are at today. Like this:


But somehow, you look at the data and you seem to conclude they suggest something like this will happen:


Then you wonder why I offer ridicule instead of agreement.

CJaurelius said:

I get it that you want Canon to be the best.

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What I want is for people to provide correct information. I’d also hope that people demonstrate the ability to make logical inferences and deductions from that correct information. Sadly, neither are common…as you’ve exemplified in this thread.

‘The best’ is completely subjective. Yes, Canon best meets my photography needs. The only person to whom that matters is me. Everyone gets to decide what is ‘the best’ for them. Market share should be totally irrelevant to such decisions.

However, when someone makes false claims about something here, I will call them out on it. If they proceed to double and triple down on those false claims, I will treat such ridiculous statements with the ridicule they deserve.

Sharing an opinion is always fine. Of course, if your opinion makes you look asinine when shared, for example stating your opinion that the earth is flat, don’t be surprised if you’re seen as an ass.

Claiming your opinion is a fact or stating that your opinion represents that of a majority, without any data to back up such a claim, is not fine.

Can someone provide a link or reference where each of theses companies report their units sold by year?

0x2102 said:

Can someone provide a link or reference where each of theses companies report their units sold by year?

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The data on camera market share are taken from the annual industry reports published by firms like Techno Systems Research and IDC (reports primarily aimed at the investment sector). Canon and Nikon list their ILC sales in their quarterly financial presentations (investor relations). Sony does not. CIPA (cipa.jp) lists industry stats but not by manufacturer.

Has anybody in this discussion actually seen or purchased their reports to evaluate who funded the report and by what method the data was collected?

0x2102 said:

Has anybody in this discussion actually seen or purchased their reports to evaluate who funded the report and by what method the data was collected?

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The Techno Systems report is published in print form in Japan, it’s available on amazon.jp for not much ¥ and at least one person on this forum has bought it. The data in such reports align well with the sales figures that Canon and Nikon report themselves, so there’s little reason to doubt the accuracy. The IDC reports were expensive, they are a well-known market intelligence firm who make their money selling such reports to investment firms.

For me: correlation is not causation. I have more questions than answers from these reports.

Anyway, as you said "Market share should be totally irrelevant...".

CJaurelius said:

Below is the date for Sony, again simply looked up the Techno Systems Research reports and dropped them into excel.

2018​	13.30%​
2019​	20.20%​
2020​	22.10%​
2021​	27.00%​
2022​	26.10%​
2023​	27.90%​

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Can you come back again to argue in 2035 if Sony can get 40% market share ?
Even Canon just want 50% market in share only. Canon is keeping 40-50% which is health for Camera market.
I don't want Canon to be Sony and release many line up every year.

neuroanatomist said:

But somehow, you look at the data and you seem to conclude they suggest something like this will happen:
View attachment 220067

Then you wonder why I offer ridicule instead of agreement.

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No you just ignore all rational discussion because somehow your life identity is tied to Canon's market share.

This is a statment from me in this thread

CJaurelius said:

But to be clear, this isn't doom and gloom on Canon market share. I think its obvious that they'll stay in the lead but the landscape is changing.

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Canon used to be at 50% market share and I'm simply predicting that Canon market share will level out in the low 40% range once DSLR's are gone. I also believe Nikon's market share will increase a bit now that they are finally moving the accomplishments of their upgraded Z9/Z8 cameras down their lineup.

BY you're logic 49% down to 46% is flat. So I guess if they go from 46% down to 43% you'll just say that is flat as well.

Navism said:

Can you come back again to argue in 2035 if Sony can get 40% market share ?
Even Canon just want 50% market in share only. Canon is keeping 40-50% which is health for Camera market.
I don't want Canon to be Sony and release many line up every year.

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This isn't a Canon vs Sony thing its just that if you use some of the things Sony is doing to make a point people whose lives are tied to brands get upset.

From what I see the average price of cameras is increasing at a rapid rate. As mentioned before the price per ILC sold in 2012 was 37,500 Yen and in 2023 was 106,000 yen. The Japanese camera makers are abadoning low end cameras chasing high margin cameras preparing for a low volume future.

Image quality has basically plateaued. The latest improvments have been in video and in some cases they're even sacraficing some image quality for those video improvements. The R5mII and the Z6III both give up a bit of dynamic range for sensor readout speed. And now were reaching the peak for video. 8k doesn't seem to a motivating factor. Most of the people want at most 6K and that's just for flexibility to reframe shots on a 4k timeline. So where do we go from here?

Does Canon stay as the market leader for the next decade? Probably. But the market seems to be on the verge of becoming more niche.

Outside of top end professionals if your a prosumer and not young if you purchase the R5mii or the Z8 you'll probably never need to buy another camera. I shoot on Sony and they come out with a ton of new cameras and while their might be a feature here or there its never enough for me to justify buying something new. Meanwhile the thing I want most isn't more this or fasther that, its better software on the camera. Most pictures are going to end up on social media and getting the content from the camera to online is a pain.

I've mentioned DJI in this thread. Unless the Japanese makers step up on the software side they're probably going to have some serious trouble ahead. CIPA only tracks the Japanese camera makers. We'll probably break just above 6M ILC in 2024. Meanwhile GoPro is selling 2.9M cameras a year alone and DJI is on the verge of crushing them.

CJaurelius said:

Canon used to be at 50% market share and I'm simply predicting that Canon market share will level out in the low 40% range once DSLR's are gone.

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When DSLRs were 90% of the ILC market, Canon’s market share was 43%. Now that DSLRs have dropped to <25% of the ILC market, what is Canon’s market share?

CJaurelius said:

BY you're logic 49% down to 46% is flat.

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I’m not the one here who lacks the ability to understand numbers. You are. 49% to 46% is a drop. 49% to 43% to 46% is flat. That’s not your failed idea of logic, that’s math. Seems you can’t do the latter, either.

Your claim was that there was a downward trend in Canon’s market share, and you were extrapolating from that downward trend to draw a conclusion. You were wrong (again). Even though all you had to do was ‘simply look up the numbers’, you failed to do it properly.

Did you admit that you were wrong? No, you doubled down. Again.

The actual data show that there is no downward trend. Canon’s market share is flat. Extrapolating a flat line does not give a downward trend. But do the correct data change your opinion? Not at all.

Like a petulant child, you stamp your little foot and pick two numbers, then claim there’s still a downward trend between them so you must be right.

I can only imagine your reaction if I picked Sony’s market share for just 2021 and 2022 and claimed Sony’s market share had a downward trend…but unlike you, I understand how to interpret data and draw logical conclusions from that interpretation.

At least you’re consistent in refusing to admit your mistakes or let facts influence your opinion. So…well done? Well, no.

CJaurelius said:

Canon folks may not follow it but we now have Chinese lenses that are getting good. Solid construction metal bodies, with adequate sharpness, good autofocus and advanced features like apurture dials. And these lenses not only cost less than the first party lenses but they are less than the Sigmas and Tamrons.
So the whole market share argument is how well these Japanese companies are doing against other Japanese Companies. But the Chinese are coming for them.

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I'm not so sure about China being able to create a new ILC body/ecosystem... even in the medium term future.
Falling volume, niche market that isn't strategic to overall direction (eg battery/solar etc) so it wouldn't make business sense at the moment given the cost of the R&D and the need for marketing/support.
Mobile phones would be more likely but even then they haven't been able to penetrate the global market successfully even with open source android.
Yes, there are some cheaper lenses and they have ignored any IP related RF mount/AF concerns by Canon.
Sure, China has the capability to do it but I am not sure that it will happen.
A lot of manufacturing capability eg cars/white goods etc, came about with non-Chinese companies wanting to sell into China but the cost was local manufacturing, minority JVs and transferred IP. That is not likely to happen with Sony/Canon/Nikon although some components may come from China.

It has taken over 10 years for Sony to get where they are now even after taking over Minolta and they still don't have a big unit market share.

If a Chinese company had acquired Nikon when they weren't doing well then that would have been a very different story.

Standalone/fixed lens systems like action cams and drones are a different niche to ILC.
Trying to include a subsidiary like Hassleblad in a unit market share discussion doesn't make a lot of sense especially when they are made in Sweden.

CJaurelius said:

Outside of top end professionals if your a prosumer and not young if you purchase the R5mii or the Z8 you'll probably never need to buy another camera. I shoot on Sony and they come out with a ton of new cameras and while their might be a feature here or there its never enough for me to justify buying something new. Meanwhile the thing I want most isn't more this or fasther that, its better software on the camera. Most pictures are going to end up on social media and getting the content from the camera to online is a pain.

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I might not upgrade from my R5 to R5ii (unless there is an insurance claim) after 4 years of use but that is a cost/feature issue for me at the moment (including an adapted underwater housing). A R5iii would be a different situation and I would be much more likely in that case but I am a single data point.

Can you define "young"? There seems to be a reasonable demand for R5ii currently in general but I can't imagine someone saying to boomers that you will only need one camera for the rest of your life.

Maybe better ergonomics would prompt you to get a new Sony body
Yet, I wonder why you are in this forum if you shoot Sony?

CJaurelius said:

I've mentioned DJI in this thread. Unless the Japanese makers step up on the software side they're probably going to have some serious trouble ahead. CIPA only tracks the Japanese camera makers. We'll probably break just above 6M ILC in 2024. Meanwhile GoPro is selling 2.9M cameras a year alone and DJI is on the verge of crushing them.

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Does DJI release unit sales for their action cams? You seem to be very optimistic for China vs Japan (Canon must be doomed™!)

I am tempted by the Action 5 Pro over a GoPro 13 for the low light but I don't think that the software is can be compared to an ILC especially for auto focus. I have no issue to switch from GP to DJI but the cost is very small compared to Canon to another ecosytem.
I did move from Lexus to Tesla (made in Shanghai) and wouldn't go back to an ICE for a lot of reasons. Telsa quality is average though.
On the other hand, I would not consider moving from Apple to Windows/android.

DJI's customer service in Australia for their drones in Australia has been way above expectations.

David - Sydney said:

I might not upgrade from my R5 to R5ii (unless there is an insurance claim) after 4 years of use but that is a cost/feature issue for me at the moment (including an adapted underwater housing). A R5iii would be a different situation and I would be much more likely in that case but I am a single data point.

Can you define "young"? There seems to be a reasonable demand for R5ii currently in general but I can't imagine someone saying to boomers that you will only need one camera for the rest of your life.

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I would say around Gen X so mid to 40's. When you look at the recent releases of the Z8, R5mii and whatever Sony releaes to compete they seem to all be pretty capable cameras. Will there be something new and shiny features? Sure. But I don't think its going to be enough to get most "prosumers" to upgrade. Most of the people I know who have express a need to upgrade it has been for video.

So for example let's say you have the Canon RP or something older than that. So you have 4K/24 at most or maybe 1080p. Most of the people I know in this camp really don't have an issue with picture quality as 24MP is good enough. So once they get to the R5mii level there is really no where to go from there. The R5 has just as good image quality as the R5mii. So you're paying for 6K which allows you to reframe on a 4K timeline and you've got 4k120. We're not selling 8k screens as the juice isn't worth the squeeze for the size screens we use. So you have a $4300 camera and 5 - 10 years later the new cameras can do a few things slightly better but will it be worth another $4300? Most "prosumers" are just going to spend their money on something more impactful. My wife hates it but I've moved on to collecting bourbon

David - Sydney said:

Maybe better ergonomics would prompt you to get a new Sony body
Yet, I wonder why you are in this forum if you shoot Sony?

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I've shot Canon and Nikon. I currently shoot Sony mainly because it's what people in my circle shoot so it makes it more conveinent. I'm pretty brand agnostic and always willing to jump ship to whoever is really pushing the boundaries.

What I would upgrade for is any camera that can streamline the shoot to post process. Give me a decent touch screen, OS for apps and drop in a sim card so I can take pictures, apply some quick edits and post to social media straigt from the cameras. I think this will be DJI but again I'd buy this from whoever makes it first.

David - Sydney said:

Does DJI release unit sales for their action cams? You seem to be very optimistic for China vs Japan (Canon must be doomed™!)

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First to be clear, my position is if DJI moves in (they've already statred) all of them are doomed unless they adapt quickly. They do not release unit sales, but there are clues. GoPro went from almost 7M units down to just under 3M. It pretty clear that DJI is making a better product and out selling them.

The main camera that I think is interesting is the Osmo Pocket 3. It has a 1 inch sensor, built in gimbal and competes with the Sony ZV-E10 and the Canon R50 selling at $670. While it has a smaller sensor for most people what you get out of it considering it fits in your pocket AND has a built in gimbal makes it a good fit for the entry level "creator" crowd that the Sony and Canon Cameras are going after.

If you jump on Amazon and drop in Canon R50 you'll see that they sell about 500 a month.


If you look at the Sony ZV-E10 it says they also sell 500 a month.

Now if you look at the OM3 it says they sell 5k a month!


So nothing conclusive but being outsold 10 - 1 at Amazon which is probably a good place for sales of a $700 camera, give a clear indication.

David - Sydney said:

I am tempted by the Action 5 Pro over a GoPro 13 for the low light but I don't think that the software is can be compared to an ILC especially for auto focus. I have no issue to switch from GP to DJI but the cost is very small compared to Canon to another ecosytem.

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I would check out the OM3 if you want decent low light and you don't need to get the camera wet.

I don't think many people are going to switch from Sony/Canon to DJI. But what I see happening is that the young people are flocking to DJI. Now if they just stop at this camera then most people who get more serious will eventually move up to Canon/Sony/Nikon. But if DJI actually makes the next move and creates a real ILC I don't see how the big three can compete. Fanboy comments aside all three of these companies make cameras capable of creating outstading pictures/videos. But the software and design of these cameras are out the stone ages.

DJI owning Hasselblad means they are already making ILC bodies and lenses. The user interface is light years ahead of anything the Japanses are doing. Then they're putting 1TB of internal SSD storage. This seems like a no brainer. I mean take any camera and add 1TB of SSD and simply bump the price up $100.

And in true Chinese fashion, if DJI made an ILC I'm sure Insta360 and Zhiyun would jump in to compete as well.

David - Sydney said:

I'm not so sure about China being able to create a new ILC body/ecosystem... even in the medium term future.
Falling volume, niche market that isn't strategic to overall direction (eg battery/solar etc) so it wouldn't make business sense at the moment given the cost of the R&D and the need for marketing/support.
Mobile phones would be more likely but even then they haven't been able to penetrate the global market successfully even with open source android.
Yes, there are some cheaper lenses and they have ignored any IP related RF mount/AF concerns by Canon.
Sure, China has the capability to do it but I am not sure that it will happen.
A lot of manufacturing capability eg cars/white goods etc, came about with non-Chinese companies wanting to sell into China but the cost was local manufacturing, minority JVs and transferred IP. That is not likely to happen with Sony/Canon/Nikon although some components may come from China.

It has taken over 10 years for Sony to get where they are now even after taking over Minolta and they still don't have a big unit market share.

If a Chinese company had acquired Nikon when they weren't doing well then that would have been a very different story.

Standalone/fixed lens systems like action cams and drones are a different niche to ILC.
Trying to include a subsidiary like Hassleblad in a unit market share discussion doesn't make a lot of sense especially when they are made in Sweden.

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But again they're already doing it. DJI bought Hasseblad in 2017. So they have years of experience making $8000+ high end ILC. They also now have years of experience making low end digital cameras. They also make cinema cameras int he Ronin 4D which was used in the recent movie Civil War. The only thing missing is the middle of the market.

The OM3 is already in direct competition with Canon/Sony/Nikon now. I believe I saw the patent for a Canon gimal camera on this website and it essentially looks just like the OM3.

Curious as to how Hasseblad being made in Sweden makes a diference?

CJaurelius said:

I would say around Gen X so mid to 40's. When you look at the recent releases of the Z8, R5mii and whatever Sony releaes to compete they seem to all be pretty capable cameras. Will there be something new and shiny features? Sure. But I don't think its going to be enough to get most "prosumers" to upgrade. Most of the people I know who have express a need to upgrade it has been for video.

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To suggest that the next 10 years will have less technological upgrades than the last 10 years (ie the history we have today) is very pessimistic. Sure, the 5Div is still a capable camera even 8 years after it was released but the R5ii is light years ahead besides battery life and optical viewfinder.
To suggest that someone with 40 years of life ahead of them would only need 1 camera is short sighted.

CJaurelius said:

I would check out the OM3 if you want decent low light and you don't need to get the camera wet.

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I use my gopro for underwater video so the OM3 isn't appropriate for me

CJaurelius said:

DJI owning Hasselblad means they are already making ILC bodies and lenses. The user interface is light years ahead of anything the Japanses are doing. Then they're putting 1TB of internal SSD storage. This seems like a no brainer. I mean take any camera and add 1TB of SSD and simply bump the price up $100.

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Adding a TB of disk is possible but wouldn't be $100. You can look to Apple for what they charge for internal storage. There isn't a reason to offer it cheaper as they already have a SD card option. If Sony/Nikon/Canon thought it would be useful then they would have put in a body already.

CJaurelius said:

And in true Chinese fashion, if DJI made an ILC I'm sure Insta360 and Zhiyun would jump in to compete as well.

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If the 3 collaborated with the L mount alliance then it is possible but I am not sure that the business case stacks up.

CJaurelius said:

[…] Then they're putting 1TB of internal SSD storage. This seems like a no brainer. I mean take any camera and add 1TB of SSD and simply bump the price up $100.
[…]

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What happens when the internal flash inevitably burns out after 3 years of use?

Non user replaceable flash memory is the posterchild for planned obsolescence, I’m dreading the moment when the flash in my 2020 laptop wears out.

CJaurelius said:

Curious as to how Hasseblad being made in Sweden makes a diference?

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The general way to enter a market as a disruptor is either to be cheap or to have a technological advantage.
Making a cheap Hassleblad in China probably wouldn't be seen by current users as an advantage even if they went down to Fuji pricing.
French leathergoods companies are never going to outsource their manufacturing even if they were owned by a Chinese company.

A Chinese company owning a factory in another country doesn't mean that the technology/skill sets can be easily transported into a local Chinese plant as a "Chinese product"

David - Sydney said:

The general way to enter a market as a disruptor is either to be cheap or to have a technological advantage.
Making a cheap Hassleblad in China probably wouldn't be seen by current users as an advantage even if they went down to Fuji pricing.
French leathergoods companies are never going to outsource their manufacturing even if they were owned by a Chinese company.

A Chinese company owning a factory in another country doesn't mean that the technology/skill sets can be easily transported into a local Chinese plant as a "Chinese product"

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I strongly suspect that the UX on the recent hasselblad bodies was done by DJI engineers or with DJI tech. It looks too polished in non-photo areas to be done by an old style camera company.

With Hasselblad in its inventory, DJI owns the know-how to get great colours out of Sony sensors, which is a huge head start if want to start marketing DJI brand MILCs on something else than pricepoint.

Cinema people seem happy with the Ronin 4D, so they have experience with ‘big’ video as well.

koenkooi said:

What happens when the internal flash inevitably burns out after 3 years of use?

Non user replaceable flash memory is the posterchild for planned obsolescence, I’m dreading the moment when the flash in my 2020 laptop wears out.

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The lifespan of an SSD is probably around 5-7 years and that is in an environment where they are getting used in a laptop daily. Most people with prosumer level and below cameras aren't using their cameras that often.

But even so the SSD is essentially there as a back up for overflow or in an emergency where you forget your SD card. So you bought a $2,500 R6miii and 7 years down the road the 1TB internal memory burns out so you keep shooting on the SD/CF express cards and business as usual. Or you simply send it in for repair if you want to use it that bad. I know multiple people who've had one of their SD card slots stop working.

The DJI Action 5 pro comes with 47GB of internal storage for this very reason. Althoug I don't think people are worried about it working 10 years from now.