There will be lens announcements in November

I find it hard to believe Canon would release a 200-500mm f/4 lens that is approx the same size and weight as the existing 600mm f/4 prime, and cost approximately the same as the current 600mm f/4 prime.
Compare the EF 300/2.8 II (2011) to the RF 100-300/2.8 (2023). The latter is 30% longer and 13% heavier. Apply that to the EF 500/4 II (2011), and you get a lens that's 115 mm longer and 400 g heavier, making it a bit larger and heavier than the RF 600/4. So even if Canon does 'better' it's likely to be similar in size and weight to the current 600/4.
 
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Compare the EF 300/2.8 II (2011) to the RF 100-300/2.8 (2023). The latter is 30% longer and 13% heavier. Apply that to the EF 500/4 II (2011), and you get a lens that's 115 mm longer and 400 g heavier, making it a bit larger and heavier than the RF 600/4. So even if Canon does 'better' it's likely to be similar in size and weight to the current 600/4.
If Canon released a 300mm/2.8 prime today it would be similar in size to what Sony offers (if they wanted to sell any). Meaning it would weigh approx 3lbs. the EF 300/2.8 II is over 5lbs. They went with a bigger, heavier zoom rather than a more compact prime. A prime f/2.8 300mm released in 2024 would be expected to weigh considerably less than the 100-300mm zoom that Canon released a couple of years ago. Something like the 300mm that Sony released.
 
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If Canon released a 300mm/2.8 prime today it would be similar in size to what Sony offers (if they wanted to sell any). Meaning it would weigh approx 3lbs. the EF 300/2.8 II is over 5lbs. They went with a bigger, heavier zoom rather than a more compact prime. A prime f/2.8 300mm released in 2024 would be expected to weigh considerably less than the 100-300mm zoom that Canon released a couple of years ago. Something like the 300mm that Sony released.
Sure. The 300/2.8 II never got the weight loss treatment Canon gave to the 400/2.8 and 600/4.

But we’re not talking about a new 300/2.8 or 500/4 prime, we’re talking about a new 200-500/4 zoom.
 
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It's not 2013. By today's standards a 200-400mm f/4 lens would be expected to have a longer reach, like 500mm, and weigh a LOT less, like under 4.5 lbs. In 2013 something with the old EF's weight and reach was reasonable, that is NOT the case in 2024. A 2024 replacement for the 200-400 f/4 would weigh under 4.5 lbs and have at least 500mm of reach. Which makes me think this new lens is just that, under 4.5 lbs, or it's MUCH cheaper than the 200-400 f/4 was when it was released and it competes via price.
Why? Has physics changed in the intervening 10 years? I'm sure they will shave off as much weight as they can, but just because some people have unrealistic expectations doesn't mean they can work miracles. PS this rumoured lens does indeed go to 500mm, as you demand.
 
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Why? Has physics changed in the intervening 10 years? I'm sure they will shave off as much weight as they can, but just because some people have unrealistic expectations doesn't mean they can work miracles. PS this rumoured lens does indeed go to 500mm, as you demand.
I can pretend the new lens will be much lighter in weight, for a few months more. Give me that much at least.
 
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I can pretend the new lens will be much lighter in weight, for a few months more. Give me that much at least.
The Sigma 500mm f5.6 lens weighs 1365 or 1370 gram (depending on the mount). A 200-500 f4 zoom has a much larger front element, likely more glass inside the lens because it is a zoom lens, an image stabilizer and the weight of the zoom mechanism. And it will be built like a Canon L lens.

Expect it to weigh substantially more than 2 kgs and cost a lot more than 10k $.
 
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At one time there were rumors of Canon working on a 500 mm f4.5 DO lens in the RF mount, but those rumors seemed to have stopped. A 200-500 mm f4 DO lens would be one approach to reduce weight as much as possible, but I doubt Canon would go this route. One never knows and it is fun to speculate.
 
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