Are we finally going to get f/2.8 constant aperture zoom lenses for APS-C/RF-S?

There is also one certainty: Sony and Nikon don't make money with 3rd. party lenses
What makes you so certain of that?
It is public information that Sony charges fees.
The agreements that Nikon and Canon have are not disclosed to the public.
It is hard to believe that Canon and Sigma would enter into a licensing agreement that was not deemed profitable to both parties.
The same goes for Sony and Nikon.
 
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That would be the RF24-105/2.8 Z
Considered a great lens but heavy, big and expensive.
My contention is that potential APS-C buyers are looking at inexpensive/small system or prosumer pixels-on-duck performance.
The latter are best served by using FF lenses on the R7 although they would want good RF-S wide angle prime/zooms.
The former are looking at small and cheaper solutions where f2.8 is generally not small or cheap.
YMMV
This was also true with DSLRs.
 
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What makes you so certain of that?
It is public information that Sony charges fees.
The agreements that Nikon and Canon have are not disclosed to the public.
It is hard to believe that Canon and Sigma would enter into a licensing agreement that was not deemed profitable to both parties.
The same goes for Sony and Nikon.
Your quote was incomplete. What I wrote is: "There is also one certainty: Sony and Nikon don't make money with 3rd. party lenses, apart from selling a few more bodies to people wanting specific Tamrons or Sigmas or with license fees."
I mentioned the license fees, of course.
But also that selling own lenses yealds higher profits than letting 3rd. parties sell lenses to your camera customers. Unless you have capacity or a cost disadvantage.
When they started expanding their camera sales, Sony needed 3rd. party manufacturers, not so Canon.
I believe no one thinks that Sony's profit will be higher if a customer buys a Sigma 1,4/35 instead of a GM Master 1,4/35...
 
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I can't say anything at this time about the R7 Mark II, only that it's coming in 2025.
I’m surprised to see no comments on this, it’s the most confident prediction I’ve seen anywhere after lots of looking (and news many of us are hoping for).

I’m planning for a big upgrade for the first time in 9 years (from a 70D), and the limitations in the R7 are meaningful enough to me to watch and wait. Is there any pattern to when in the year this release is most likely?
 
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More upmarket RF-S lenses would be very welcome. For me personally they don't necessarily have to have an f2.8 aperture especially considering the EF-S 18-45mm F2.8 was quite heavy for a EF-S lens. F4 would do it and if they are too heavy, I´d be in.

I do think Canon is in (desperate) need of quality RF-S lenses. (so far, Canon clearly thinks otherwise). I took the chance of testing the R50 and R10 last week in a camera store in Berlin (while traveling) and I actually loved both cameras (prefer the R10 because of the joystick) and I could imagine snagging one of them a lite travel camera (one of these or the R8). The big BUT: RF´S lenses suck imho. The 18-45mm F4.5-6.3 is crap and shooting F6.3!!! at 45mm (or actually at 35mm or something) is just insane and no fun. I don´t care about the higher F-numbers e.g. in the 100-400mm because the bookeh is still nice and the lens has advantages due to being F5.6 - F8. But for the small area covered with the 18-45mm it really shouldn't be F6.3. I always didn't find any joy in using the 55-210mm. The 18-150mm is the only lense I'd even consider, but it also has its caveats.

So, for now I'll sit back and relax and see what Canon and Sigma have to offer in 2025. Otherwise, I'll wait for R8mkii or get a cheap, used R8... both works for me, but I´d like to have choices :)
 
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They do both.
By your very logic, we can assume both are profitable or else why would they license to third parties in the first place?
Sony had to open their mount in the early days - especially to support Canon lenses otherwise no one would buy the bodies which had the better sensors in them. They had no choice. Early switchers battled on with their metabones adapters which mostly worked but sometimes didn't until there was decent native lenses.

In some ways, Canon could have avoided these early switchers with better sensors. The ones I know who switched early have gone on to be Sony ambassadors and influenced many to go to Sony. The market share numbers show Sony increasing in lieu of Nikon rather than Canon but there is anecdotally a niche of higher end landscapers who were happy to jump to the dark side.
 
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Looking at just ILCs, Canon's (approximate) market share was:

2023: 2.88 M / 6.00 M = 48.0%
2022: 2.86 M / 5.96 M = 48.2%
2021: 2.74 M / 5.35 M = 51.2%
2020: 2.76 M / 5.37 M = 51.5%
2019: 4.16 M / 8.46 M = 49.2%
2018: 5.04 M / 10.76 M = 46.8%
2017: 5.51 M / 11.68 M = 47.2%

I suppose some people (looking at you, @Uneternal) could look at the above data and say Canon has lost 3.5% ILC market share over a 4 year period and somehow conclude that massive numbers of people are switching away from Canon and that Canon is Doomed™. I stand by my conclusion that the data show Canon's market share has hovered around 50% for many years.
Or we could look at it this way

Screenshot 2024-08-28 175308.jpg
 
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Or we could look at it this way
It’s clear how you’re ‘looking’ at it.

1724884400168.png

It’s funny, but also a bit pathetic, that you seem to think cameras costing >$2000 are major drivers of market share.

The only relevant thing on the Canon side was the discontinuation of the M series. The M series was pruned back in 2022 leaving just the M50 II (and only the double zoom kit of that), and the line was terminated in 2023. No new M lenses were launched after 2018. The R50 came out in early 2023, and cheapest R body (R100) didn’t launch until mid-2023.

If you want to look for a reason for the slight drop in market share in 2022-23, look at Canon discontinuing the line which at one point represented 17% of all ILCs sold globally. And consider that in doing so, they actually lost very little market share as people started buying APS-C R bodies instead. Or just keep those black-glass lenses in front of your eyes.

Canon is forecasting a 49% ILC share in 2024. That increase is because of the R1, right? :ROFLMAO:
 
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It’s clear how you’re ‘looking’ at it.

View attachment 219498

It’s funny, but also a bit pathetic, that you seem to think cameras costing >$2000 are major drivers of market share.

The only relevant thing on the Canon side was the discontinuation of the M series. The M series was pruned back in 2022 leaving just the M50 II (and only the double zoom kit of that), and the line was terminated in 2023. No new M lenses were launched after 2018. The R50 came out in early 2023, and cheapest R body (R100) didn’t launch until mid-2023.

If you want to look for a reason for the slight drop in market share in 2022-23, look at Canon discontinuing the line which at one point represented 17% of all ILCs sold globally. And consider that in doing so, they actually lost very little market share as people started buying APS-C R bodies instead. Or just keep those black-glass lenses in front of your eyes.

Canon is forecasting a 49% ILC share in 2024. That increase is because of the R1, right? :ROFLMAO:
It is easy for anyone to point to corporate failings in hindsight with 20-20 vision (even if blind in this case! :))

That Canon has managed to achieve what they have - at least in unit sale market share - is remarkable despite lots of perceived missteps. Sure they could have done better and arguably should have been better but for the sake of all users it is better to have long term success for at least 3 players.

That Nikon has survived has been a bonus for everyone especially for Z8/Z9 and Zf users.
That Canon continues to design and build competitive FF sensors is also remarkable given Sony's dominance by leveraging their phone sensor infrastructure.

Canon/Nikon was a bit cozy and probably a lazy duopoly.

Hopefully OM/Fuji will also survive in their niches as well.
 
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It is easy for anyone to point to corporate failings in hindsight with 20-20 vision (even if blind in this case! :))

That Canon has managed to achieve what they have - at least in unit sale market share - is remarkable despite lots of perceived missteps.
Perceived missteps, I like that. Like the examples from @Uneternal above…
  • Not having a FF mirrorless camera in 2017…when approximately 3.5% of ILCs sold were FF MILCs.
  • Canon threatening to sue a relatively obscure Chinese lens manufacturer for IP infringement, as if that was somehow significant in terms of market share.
Well, as I said before:
Keep on posting those conclusions and making yourself look more and more foolish.


Canon may have made some missteps, but clearly nothing big enough to have a meaningful effect on their market dominance.
 
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I’m planning for a big upgrade for the first time in 9 years (from a 70D), and the limitations in the R7 are meaningful enough to me to watch and wait. Is there any pattern to when in the year this release is most likely?

The R7 though, is still very much superior to your 70D, trust me. I switched to the R7 from the 80D in 2023 and was blown away. Yes, there are limitations, but in real life use, they appear to be rather minor. You just have to figure out, how to work with them or around them. Which in the end, isn't a big deal. I get way more keepers with the R7, than I got with the 80D.
Don't listen so much to the reviewers, use it and figure out yourself.

Yes... a faster read out speed would be nice to have. But it's not so much of a dealbreaker. And talking about high ISOs, it's actually not an issue, with AI-Denoise being integrated in LRc. I confidently shoot the R7 until ISO reaches 12.800.

The R7 is a capable camera, with a very demanding high pixel density sensor. It deserves better dedicated lenses. The now available RF-S lenses are all pretty much crappy in my opinion. Even worse, than most of the EF-S lenses.
 
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Your quote was incomplete. What I wrote is: "There is also one certainty: Sony and Nikon don't make money with 3rd. party lenses, apart from selling a few more bodies to people wanting specific Tamrons or Sigmas or with license fees."
I mentioned the license fees, of course.
But also that selling own lenses yealds higher profits than letting 3rd. parties sell lenses to your camera customers. Unless you have capacity or a cost disadvantage.
When they started expanding their camera sales, Sony needed 3rd. party manufacturers, not so Canon.
I believe no one thinks that Sony's profit will be higher if a customer buys a Sigma 1,4/35 instead of a GM Master 1,4/35...
Sorry, my mistake.
 
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Thanks for the numbers.
You’re welcome.


The reasoning is sound but that is a lot of speculation.
The only numbers @Uneternal provided compared 2022 total digital camera sales to 2023 MILC sales and used that irrelevant comparison to draw a baseless conclusion. Oh, and two years of total camera sales carefully cherry-picked to support an opinion. IMO, those factors are worth considering when weighing the soundness of someone’s reasoning. YMMV.
 
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You’re welcome.



The only numbers @Uneternal provided compared 2022 total digital camera sales to 2023 MILC sales and used that irrelevant comparison to draw a baseless conclusion. Oh, and two years of total camera sales carefully cherry-picked to support an opinion. IMO, those factors are worth considering when weighing the soundness of someone’s reasoning. YMMV.
He wasn't talking about that, he was talking about my timeline.
Besides you don't have to attack me personally, just because you don't like my opinion. Sometimes maybe try to take your fanboy glasses off and apply some common sense.
 
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He wasn't talking about that, he was talking about my timeline.
Your timeline that includes a screenshot of my numbers? Oh, ok…that makes oodles of sense because your timeline was chock-full of numbers.

Besides you don't have to attack me personally, just because you don't like my opinion. Sometimes maybe try to take your fanboy glasses off and apply some common sense.
It’s not about a difference of opinion…it’s about misinterpretation of facts. When people make ridiculous statements, ridicule sometimes follows. We may disagree about whether Canon or Nikon makes better cameras, and that’s fine. But if you claim that Nikon sells more cameras than Canon and try to support that claim with the sales data from Bob’s House of Cameras in Kalamazoo for the month of August, then you’re being ridiculous.

Common sense like drawing a conclusion from comparing datasets that are fundamentally different? Or cherry-picking two specific years that support your opinion when picking two other years leads to the opposite conclusion…instead of looking at the overall trend.

Sadly, you’re half right…such tactics are common. But they don’t make sense to anyone capable of honesty and logical thought.
 
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I have (or have had) a 5D3, R6, and R10, with 24-70L and 24-105L lenses. But the kit I carried most is/was my SL1 with EFS 15-85. I think the 15-85 works as well as my 24-105. The 24-70 is too short for me, full frame. I would love an RFS 15-85, or a 17-85, fixed or variable f-stop.
So glad to see another 15-85 enthusiast ! That missing lens on an RF-S is what is holding me from moving to RF-S . If it was my only lens I would go R6 plus 24-105 but can’t completely dump my 4 other EF/ EF-S lenses
 
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